INDUSTRY NEWS ( INTERNATIONAL )

PCB, Interconnection Trends for Electronic Assemblies Report

Research and Markets has announced the addition of the High Speed Electronics Report 2009 report to their offerings.

The report relates supply chain opportunities in high-speed electronics and provides a strategic review of PCB, material and interconnection trends and needs for electronic assemblies for high-speed telecom, datacom networks and high-end computers over the period 2009 to 2014.

Key trends include:

• 40G networks are about to take the next step to 100G.
• 16G Fibre Channel is emerging in the data storage arena, 32G will follow.
• The copper and fibre interface continues to change and will penetrate at a system level in the future.
• Wireless mobile datacom is moving from 3G to 4G.
• Convergence of satellite and terrestrial mobile communications.
• Coreless and thin core packaging solutions for high speed semiconductors

Key deliverables include:

• This study provides a totally integrated assessment of the high-speed electronics value chain.
• Identification and quantification of the opportunities for small, medium and large technology vendors.
• Comprehensive roadmaps detailing the technologies, materials and processes that will be needed to participate in these markets.
• Identifies key technology and market drivers of this major market sector Study Background and Scope
  

In 2001, second-generation mobile communication 2G was maturing and 3G on the near horizon with interim technologies 2.5G (GPRS) and 2.75G (EDGE) moving in faster.

Eight years on, the demand for greater bandwidth for video streaming, mobile TV and Internet has driven the development of Long Term Evolution (LTE), High Speed Packet Access (HSPA) and WiMAX which are designed for data rates of 10Mbps and beyond and are collectively known as 4G. A 3G base station has a bandwidth capacity of 10Mbps. 4G networks will enable a bandwidth capacity of up to 2Gbps. For continuity and compatibility wireless base stations and remote radio heads must accommodate multiple standards and be easily upgradeable.

For data communications carrier networks, the dotcom crash of 2001 delayed the shift from 2.5Gbps to 10Gbps carrier Ethernet as capacity exceeded demand and new installations looked to more cost-effective solutions with multiple 2.5G components rather than selecting the emerging and not so cost-effective 10G components.

Eight years on, 10G Ethernet has matured, 40G is emerging and 100G is very much on developers' roadmaps. The current key issue is whether 100G Ethernet will replace OC-768 in the long haul market. Whether 40G or 100G is used, advanced signal modulation and compensation technologies will need to be implemented in transceiver components.

The report will take a look at these and other high speed technologies from 1Gbps to 100Gbps and explore the implications for IC packaging and interconnection technologies, markets and the supply chain. This report will be for strategists and business managers keen to develop current and future business opportunities.

The analyst will review the technological drivers for key systems in the high-speed data and telecommunication networking market to identify the features that will impact on the requirements and specifications for printed circuits boards, IC packaging, interconnection and associated assembly, materials and processing.

Asian market trends in printed circuit boards ( Data source:pcbpartner 2009-11-02 )

Last week, the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) released the August production numbers for printed circuit boards. This statistical data from the first eight months of 2009 provides us with a pretty good snapshot of market trends and allows us to forecast performance for the remainder of the year.

August shipments for printed circuit boards in Japan totalled 54.553 billion yen, representing a 7.5% decline from the previous month. This decline can be attributed to the week-long summer vacation in August; however, comparing August 2008 to August 2009 shows a decline of 22.9%.

The good news is this monthly decline rate has decreased steadily over the year, and most of us predict a positive growth rate will be realized before year's end (comparing month to month).

PCB Trends in Taiwan ( Data source:Dominique K. Numakura - DKN Research 2009-09-29 )

Reports from industry news groups in Taiwan address the possibility of a capacity shortage for Taiwanese PCB manufacturers in the fourth quarter. These announcements are causing anxiety for anyone associated with the industry because business trends for Taiwanese PCB manufacturers are recognized as a worldwide barometer for the consumer electronics segment.

Shipments from Taiwanese manufacturers plummeted during the fourth quarter of 2008 by almost 75%. The financial crisis of September 2008, followed by the dreadful fourth quarter drop in business, caused everyone in the PCB industry in Taiwan to act quickly to keep the ship afloat. The rebound in sales was quick, and January 2009 showed signs of a recovery. Shipments continued to increase steadily during the second half of the first quarter. This spike in business was not from current product lines, but new gadgets that include net books and smart phones. These markets have exploded and created new business avenues for manufacturers. Taiwanese flexible circuit manufacturers are also busy from the portable electronics segment.

The growth rate slowed in the latter part of the second quarter, but the Taiwanese PCB industry is happy with a moderate growth rate during the third quarter. Market trends suggest a typical year where manufacturers receive an increase in orders in anticipation of a busy Christmas season. Operation managers are reporting that their manufacturing plants are operating at full capacity due to the influx of new orders.
Unfortunately, market indexes for August reveals more than a 20% decline in volume compared to the same month last year; only the larger industry leading manufacturers are seeing an increase in business. So, who is riding this wave? A few large manufacturers that are fortunate enough to have customers associated with net books and smart phones are the ones who have seen positive growth since August. The majority of Taiwanese PCB manufacturers have negative growth compared to last year. Business for mid-sized manufacturers declined 40 to 60% comparing August 2008 to August 2009, and there are no clear signs that things will bounce back in the near future.

Sales and marketing teams from leading PCB companies report brisk sales and large orders in their queue for the fourth quarter; however, they are unable to provide a clear business forecast for 2010. Much of their activity is tied to portable electronics sales. Taiwanese manufacturers are in the hiring mode, assuming a busy season, but management is pulling back the reigns and do not want to expand the workforce too much in fear of another decline in business

China PCB industry production / output unchanged in 2007 and 2008

The average annual growth rate of Chinese PCB industry has been to 25.3% over the past 20 years, the total output value of 2008 was up to118.3 billion, with a increase 1.77% higher than 2007, The import and export amounted to $21.37 billion, over 4.91% in the same period. In the past few years, the PCB industry in China is facing the changes of domestic and international market environment. With the development of globalization in Chinese PCB industry, the adjustment of enterprise layout, the strengthen of enterprise to environmental protection, Chinese PCB industry has gradually fare welled to the past era of low-cost competition, entering a new era of development in transition.

By the international financial crisis at the fourth quarter of 2008, there were sharp drop of orders in Chinese enterprise, accompanied with the the utilization of capacity insufficient, the direction of development unclear, which caused the output value of PCB to fall rapidly in the fourth quarter last year, followed the sales appearing a sharp decrease.

During the enterprises we counted in the first half of 2008, ultimate output grows 11.53% and sales volume grows 11.94% compared to the same period. Overall, the printed circuit industry in China still presents a good momentum of development. But the total amount of corporate profits and taxes presents negative growths of 2.31% for the first time.

To November, 2008, the international finance crisis attacks the global manufacturing industry rapidly. The globalization of Chinese PCB leads the shrinkage of corporate orders and the utilization of capacity insufficient. In the whole 2008, benefited to the high growth from January to October, the output and value basically keep the same as last year, while the total annual profit and taxes declined at 6.85%.
Nevertheless, the level of technology and supporting ability is still improving. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the electronic information industry including printed circuit slid in large scale, the Chinese government rapidly released a number of policies to stimulate economy and drive domestic demand. At the same time, the government adjusted the industrial policy, implemented the positive financial policy and the moderate loose monetary policy, raised the related rate of export tax rebate and reduced the import tariff to stabilize the development of the electronic information industry including printed circuit.

Japan PCB industry has difficulty of developing to high densification

How does the epoxy resin PCB industry develop at present in Japan? It’s released that the whole Electronic circuit industry like PCB, Package substrate and specialized process industry and so on has increased by 4.8% and up to ¥2571.3 billion in 2007，among which the epoxy resin PCB industry had a growth of 5.0% compared to the same period, up to ¥1379.9 billion and become the largest scale of production since the bubble of IT (information technology)in 2000. The PCB goes towards the direction of advanced difficulty: it’s difficult to increase the production in large scale by activating Japanese domestic demand in the whole. However, with the advanced functionalization of civil products such as liquid crystals, digital camera, portable product, entertainment machine and so on, the high-density PCB increased compared with last year, having a relatively growth of output and value regardless of the single-side, double-side or 4 multiplayer PCB board even the low-level PCB is developing to the direction of high difficulty. Semiconductor exports as the center of ELECTRONICS PRODUCTS go well, especially the module substrate had a great increase of demand compared to last year. FPCB reached it peak in 2003, but followed by a low situation for 3 years. However, the multi-layered FPCB grows 30.6%, and the entire FPCB increased 602% compared to last year. Such high growth rate of multi-layered FPCB shows the trend of the target market to the aspect of high-density enhancing.

AT&S: Shanghai facility is largest HDI-PCB-facility in China

With more than 550.000m2 in produced printed circuit board area, the AT&S facility in Shanghai is the largest HDI-PCB-facility in China, reports the China Printed Circuit Association (CPCA). PCB Measured in printed circuit board area and turnover, AT&S Shanghai is number 1 among the HDI-PCB-facilities in China. This ranking was recently published by the CPCA in their Statistical Annual Report 2008.

While the entire Chinese HDI-PCB market of 2008 - measured in printed circuit board area produced - shrunk by 1.21% (compared to last year), AT&S China was able to increase its production by more than 15%. The same goes for the turnover of the Chinese AT&S facility, while the overall market declined by 2.33% Y-o-Y.

The continued good performance shown by AT&S China is also reflected in the rankings of recent years: while the facility was listed #4 in 2006, it ranked #2 in 2007 and made the top position in 2008 - as the largest HDI-PCB facility in mainland China.